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Chart of the WeekNovember 24, 2025

Chart Of the Week – A Peek At Forward Looking Inflation Data

The breakeven inflation rate represents the market’s expectation for average annual inflation over a specific time-period, calculated by comparing the yields of regular U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

Chart Of the Week – A Peek At Forward Looking Inflation Data
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The breakeven inflation rate represents the market’s expectation for average annual inflation over a specific time-period, calculated by comparing the yields of regular U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

As of November 21, 2025, the 5-year breakeven inflation rate was 2.32%, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate was 2.24%.

A rising 5-year breakeven inflation rate suggests that short-term inflation expectations are increasing, which could indicate concerns about current inflationary pressures. A rising 10-year breakeven inflation rate, on the other hand, could signal concerns about long-term inflation trends. Both have declined from their recent peaks, flashing a signal that the inflation outlook for the years to come is improving.

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Last Week on Wall Street is Waterloo Capital's weekly market recap, published every Monday morning to keep advisors and clients informed on the most significant developments from the prior trading week. Each edition synthesizes equity market performance, fixed income moves, macroeconomic data releases, and notable corporate earnings into a concise, actionable read — cutting through the noise so our readers can focus on what actually matters for long-term wealth management.

Our research team tracks the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and 10-year Treasury yield as primary benchmarks, while also covering sector rotations, commodity swings, and policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and Washington. When major cross-asset moves occur — such as the historic gold selloff covered in this edition — we dig into the mechanics and the likely ripple effects on diversified portfolios, helping clients contextualize volatility without reacting impulsively.

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