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Chart of the WeekJanuary 12, 2026

Chart Of the Week – Price Has Bottomed Before Earnings in Bear Markets

While it may feel safer to wait until things “look better”, history shows that the market often recovers while fundamentals still appear weak.

Chart Of the Week – Price Has Bottomed Before Earnings in Bear Markets
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While it may feel safer to wait until things “look better”, history shows that the market often recovers while fundamentals still appear weak.

In 2009, 2020, and 2022, S&P 500 price bottomed months before earnings hit their lows. This pattern is consistent: the market anticipates recovery and begins to rebound even as reported earnings continue to fall. The result? Waiting for earnings to “catch up” has meant buying back in at much higher levels.

Looking at today’s market environment, many investors are still sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the economy or earnings to “look better” before getting back in. But history suggests that by the time things feel safe, markets have already moved.

About This Series

Last Week on Wall Street

Last Week on Wall Street is Waterloo Capital's weekly market recap, published every Monday morning to keep advisors and clients informed on the most significant developments from the prior trading week. Each edition synthesizes equity market performance, fixed income moves, macroeconomic data releases, and notable corporate earnings into a concise, actionable read — cutting through the noise so our readers can focus on what actually matters for long-term wealth management.

Our research team tracks the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and 10-year Treasury yield as primary benchmarks, while also covering sector rotations, commodity swings, and policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and Washington. When major cross-asset moves occur — such as the historic gold selloff covered in this edition — we dig into the mechanics and the likely ripple effects on diversified portfolios, helping clients contextualize volatility without reacting impulsively.

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Evidence-Based Perspective for Long-Term Investors

Waterloo Capital's investment research is grounded in fundamental analysis and long-term thinking. We believe that disciplined, evidence-based investing — anchored in each client's specific goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon — consistently outperforms reactive decision-making driven by short-term headlines. Our weekly commentary is designed to inform, not alarm: we put market moves in their proper historical context so that clients can hold conviction in their financial plans through periods of uncertainty.

As an SEC-registered investment advisor headquartered in Austin, Texas, with offices across the Southwest and Southeast, Waterloo Capital serves high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions. Our advisors use proprietary research like this weekly recap as one input among many — alongside in-depth portfolio reviews, tax planning, and estate strategy — to deliver comprehensive wealth management tailored to each client relationship. To learn more about how our investment philosophy and ongoing market research can serve your financial future, contact our team directly.

Investment Disclosure: The information contained in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Waterloo Capital, LP is an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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Chart Of the Week – Price Has Bottomed Before Earnings in Bear Markets | Waterloo Capital