Friday's ISM Manufacturing PMI report for April came in at 52.7, matching its highest reading since August 2022 and marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion.
On the surface that sounds encouraging, but the details are more complicated. Prices paid remain elevated, supplier deliveries are lengthening, and consumer confidence is still near historic lows.
That combination puts the economy in an uncomfortable middle ground, sitting right between stagflationary and overheating territory, and gives the Fed very little room to move in either direction.