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Chart of the WeekMarch 18, 2026

Chart Of the Week – What Happens to Stocks After a Surge in Oil?

The chart illustrates how the S&P 500 has historically performed over the following year after 2-day oil price surges of 20% or more, dating back to 1986.

Chart Of the Week – What Happens to Stocks After a Surge in Oil?
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Measuring Oil Surges & Stock Returns: The chart illustrates how the S&P 500 has historically performed over the following year after 2-day oil price surges of 20% or more, dating back to 1986. 

A Look at the Data: There have been 8 unique instances of oil surging 20% or more over a 2-day period (since 1986). In 7 of 8 cases, the S&P 500 was higher one year later. The S&P 500 has generated a -1.60% return since the March 6, 2026 instance. 

Investment Implications: While past performance is not indicative of future results, the chart shows that the S&P 500 has historically tended to show resilience the year following 2-day oil surges over more than 20%.  

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Last Week on Wall Street is Waterloo Capital's weekly market recap, published every Monday morning to keep advisors and clients informed on the most significant developments from the prior trading week. Each edition synthesizes equity market performance, fixed income moves, macroeconomic data releases, and notable corporate earnings into a concise, actionable read — cutting through the noise so our readers can focus on what actually matters for long-term wealth management.

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Investment Disclosure: The information contained in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Waterloo Capital, LP is an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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