What Happened?
Markets kicked off September on a cautious but upbeat note, with the S&P 500 up 0.33%, the Dow down 0.32%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.14% to fresh highs. Tech led the charge as Broadcom surged 13–14% on strong quarterly results and upbeat AI-driven guidance, while Alphabet rallied after clearing a major antitrust hurdle that secured its search partnership with Apple. Apple and Tesla added to the momentum, underscoring the market’s continued reliance on Big Tech leadership.
The week’s narrative shifted on Friday with a surprisingly weak August jobs report showing just 22,000 payrolls added and unemployment climbing to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. While the data pointed to a cooling economy, it also heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could move more aggressively on rate cuts.
September has historically been a difficult month for equities as volatility rises and institutions rebalance, and this week was no exception. Still, the resilience of tech heavyweights and mounting confidence in Fed easing helped keep indices near record levels, reminding investors that for now, policy hopes and Big Tech strength remain the market’s strongest supports.
Hiring Stalled in August, With 22,000 New Jobs
- New jobs for August reported at 22,000, down from 75,000 expectations.
- June’s job report was also revised down to net loss of 13,000 for the first such time since 2021.
The key takeaway – Bad look for the labor market this week as the most recent payroll growth nearly stalling and unemployment edging up from 4.2% to 4.3%. It marked the slowest pace of job additions at the start of a year since 2009, excluding the COVID shock, reinforcing the view that the economy is moving into a gradual freeze rather than maintaining steady momentum.
Equity markets, however, looked through the softness and instead latched onto the policy implications. With signs of cooling in the labor market now undeniable, investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will be forced to move sooner on rate cuts, potentially even considering a 50-basis-point reduction.
August CPI report likely to show ’sticky’ inflation
- ISM manufacturing index rose to 48.7% in August from 48.0% in June.
- The index for orders, a sign of future sales, turned positive for the first time in seven months.
The key takeaway – The ISM Manufacturing report this week offered little reassurance for investors, with the index once again stuck below the key 50% threshold that signals contraction. Manufacturing has been struggling to find footing amid ongoing tariff pressures, and analysts noted that while new orders showed an uptick, the gains were concentrated in a narrow pocket of industries and are unlikely to provide lasting momentum.
The data was particularly unsettling given manufacturing’s role as a leading indicator for broader economic health. Persistent weakness here suggests that growth prospects remain challenged, especially as companies continue to grapple with higher input costs. Rising prices against a backdrop of a cooling labor market has only added to unease, reviving talk of stagflation, a toxic mix of slowing growth and stubborn inflation.
From Around the Watercooler
Apple dodged a $20 billion hit, thanks to Google antitrust ruling
RFK Jr., HHS to Link Autism to Tylenol Use in Pregnancy and Folate Deficiencies
Another College President Quits
Lululemon shares plunge 20%