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This Week on Wall Street
Week of June 8, 2026
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Market Commentary
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Friday was the worst day for stocks since October. The Nasdaq fell 4.18% and the S&P 500 dropped 2.64%, ending a nine-week winning streak. Semiconductors led the slide after weak guidance from Broadcom soured sentiment across the group, and the selling spread from there. Chip names steadied to start this week, but the bounce feels tentative. The harder story sits underneath the tape. The Iran conflict reached its 100th day, and the two sides traded strikes over the weekend. Iran has warned it will fully resume operations if Israel keeps up its campaign in Lebanon. With the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, oil has drifted back toward $93. The energy risk premium that markets had set aside is suddenly real again.
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The labor market also drew attention last week. May payrolls came in far stronger than expected, near 172,000 jobs against a consensus around 80,000. The case for rate cuts had already been fading for months, and a print this hot pushed the conversation further toward the opposite risk. Markets now put the odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end at more than 50%. That makes this week's inflation data the next test. May CPI lands Wednesday, with PPI to follow Thursday. The Fed has held at 3.50% to 3.75% for three straight meetings, a patience that rests on the assumption that inflation is still cooling. A firm reading on either print would pressure new chair Kevin Warsh to consider acting sooner. The easing narrative that once framed the outlook has effectively dropped out of the conversation.
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The week's marquee event is not a data release but a market debut. SpaceX goes public this Friday in what would be the largest IPO on record, a raise of roughly $75 billion at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation. That would place it among the most valuable companies in the country, above Tesla and within reach of the megacap technology leaders. What stands out, though, is who gets to buy in. The company plans to set aside as much as 30% of the offering for individual investors, about three times the retail share of a typical deal. The move borrows from the Tesla playbook, leaning on a loyal retail base to steady the stock after it opens. For the broader market, a raise this size is a real test of appetite. The capital has to come from somewhere, and a debut at a stretched valuation leaves the newest buyers carrying more of the early risk if enthusiasm fades. It is also just the first of a wave, with Anthropic and OpenAI lining up behind it, which we pick up in the chart below.
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Chart of the Week
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This chart lines up the anticipated valuations of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI next to today's largest public technology companies. SpaceX slots in just below the established giants and ahead of names like Tesla, a striking spot for a company that has never traded publicly. Anthropic is close behind. It filed confidentially on June 1 after a funding round that lifted its valuation to roughly $965 billion, and bankers see a debut near the trillion-dollar mark. OpenAI, valued around $850 billion in private markets, is laying groundwork for a listing as soon as late 2026 and could raise at least $60 billion. Taken together, the three offerings could draw close to $200 billion from public markets, more than the entire US IPO market raised in some recent years.
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Economic Releases This Week
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Monday, June 8: None
Tuesday, June 9: US Trade Balance (May), Existing Home Sales (May)
Wednesday, June 10: Consumer Price Index (May)
Thursday, June 11: Producer Price Index (May), Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, June 12: None
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Stories to Start the Week
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Newton Model
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The Newton Model, proprietary to Waterloo Capital, scores market sectors, asset classes, and investment styles on a scale of 0 to 20, with 0–8 indicating relative weakness (red down arrow), 9–13 indicating neutral positioning (yellow), and 14–20 indicating relative strength (green up arrow). Scores are computed from technical indicators including momentum, breadth, and valuation relative to historical norms. The model is intended as a framework for tracking which areas of the market are showing technical strength or weakness. Scores are updated weekly on Monday.
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| Equities |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Emerging Markets | ▲ | 20 | 18 |
| Mid Cap | ▲ | 19 | 18 |
| Large Cap | ▲ | 15 | 12 |
| Small Cap | ▬ | 12 | 18 |
| Foreign Developed | ▼ | 9 | 11 |
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| Fixed Income |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Long-Term Bond | ▬ | 10 | 10 |
| Corporate Bond | ▼ | 8 | 8 |
| High Yield Bond | ▼ | 5 | 10 |
| Floating Rate Bond | ▼ | 5 | 9 |
| Intermediate Term Bond | ▼ | 5 | 9 |
| Short Term Bond | ▼ | 2 | 7 |
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| Sectors |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Technology | ▲ | 19 | 14 |
| Materials | ▬ | 13 | 12 |
| Industrials | ▬ | 11 | 14 |
| Energy | ▼ | 8 | 9 |
| Health Care | ▼ | 7 | 10 |
| Consumer Cyclical | ▼ | 6 | 15 |
| Real Estate | ▼ | 5 | 13 |
| Communications | ▼ | 5 | 13 |
| Financials | ▼ | 4 | 8 |
| Consumer Defensive | ▼ | 4 | 7 |
| Utilities | ▼ | 2 | 12 |
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| Market Segments |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Large Growth | ▲ | 19 | 14 |
| Mid-Cap Value | ▲ | 18 | 17 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | ▲ | 16 | 17 |
| Small Growth | ▲ | 14 | 18 |
| Small Value | ▬ | 9 | 16 |
| Large Value | ▼ | 6 | 12 |
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Notable Newton Moves: Defensives faded sharply: Utilities dropped 10 points, Real Estate and Communications each fell 8, Consumer Defensive down 3. Growth surged: Technology rose 5 points to 19, Large Growth jumped to 19 from 14. Large Value fell 6 points to 6 while Large Growth widened the spread, reflecting a clear rotation from defensive to cyclical positioning.
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Technical trading models are mathematically driven based upon historical data and trends of domestic and foreign market trading activity, including various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models, through mathematical algorithms, attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, updated with new data, and can accurately predict future market, industry and sector performance.
Disclosure: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This newsletter is not intended to be relied upon as forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date noted and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this letter are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Waterloo Capital to be reliable. The letter may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will materialize. Reliance upon information in this letter is at sole discretion of the reader. Please consult with a Waterloo Capital financial advisor to ensure that any contemplated transaction in any securities or investment strategy mentioned in this newsletter aligns with your overall investment goals, objectives and tolerance for risk. Additional information about Waterloo Capital is available in its current disclosure documents, Form ADV, Form ADV Part 2A Brochure, and Client Relationship Summary report which are accessible online via the SEC's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (IAPD) database at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov, using SEC # 133705. Waterloo Capital is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of this content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
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