| |
|
This Week on Wall Street
Week of July 13, 2026
|
|
Market Commentary
|
|
Stocks finished the week higher after a bumpy stretch of trading. Energy and technology led the way. The more relevant shift, though, has been building over the past few weeks. Financials and healthcare have quietly become some of the market’s stronger groups, as investors spread money beyond the largest and most expensive technology names. Tech is not faltering. The leadership is simply broadening out. The weekend was far less calm. U.S. forces struck Iranian targets repeatedly, Iran fired on shipping and on U.S. partners across the Gulf, and the fragile June ceasefire looked all but gone. The flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says the waterway is now closed and has warned vessels away, while the United States says traffic is still moving through it under naval escort. Crude has pushed higher to start the new week, a sign that the risk to oil supply is back in focus.
|
|
The week ahead turns on inflation. June’s Consumer Price Index arrives Tuesday, and consensus looks for the headline figure to slip about 0.1% on the month, which would pull the annual rate down to roughly 3.9% from 4.2%. The reason is energy. Pump prices fell sharply in June, after the mid-June ceasefire cooled the conflict and pulled oil down from its wartime highs. That relief may prove short-lived after the weekend’s escalation, and it masks a firmer core. Stripping out food and energy, core inflation is expected to hold near 2.9%, a sign that underlying price pressure is still sticky. Wednesday brings the Producer Price Index, a read on wholesale prices that often previews what reaches consumers later, with consensus there looking for a slight monthly decline as well. Thursday adds June retail sales, seen rising about 0.3% after a stronger May, a gauge of whether households keep spending as prices and rates stay elevated. Together the three releases will shape how the market reads the path of Fed policy from here.
|
|
Earnings season opens this week, and it starts where the recent action has been. The big banks report first, on Tuesday morning, with a set of large healthcare names following later in the week. Financials are the group to watch. They came into 2026 as a popular call that was slow to pay off, lagging for months before finding their footing, and the reasons behind the turn are worth laying out. A steeper yield curve and firmer interest rates lift what banks earn on lending. A busy stretch of dealmaking and trading has boosted fee income. And bank valuations still sit below the broader market. Analysts expect some of the quarter’s strongest profit growth to come from capital markets and lending. Healthcare is a different case. After years of underperformance it offers steadier earnings and cheaper valuations, which draw investors looking for more defensive footing. Still, earnings alone will not settle whether the rotation holds. Profits and share prices do not always move together, and results can look strong even as a group’s leadership quietly fades. The better tell is whether investors keep rewarding these sectors as the reports come in.
|
|
Chart of the Week
The Rest of the Market Breaks a 15-Year Downtrend
|
|
|
This line tracks the S&P 500’s “Old Era” sectors, the nine outside technology and communications, measured against the full index. Chronic underperformers since 2011, they spent 15 years grinding lower before the ratio broke above its long downtrend this year. The last comparable breakout, in late 2000, was followed by more than a decade of outperformance. One move does not make a trend, but it is the clearest sign in years that leadership may be broadening beyond the largest technology names.
|
| Source: Paulsen Perspectives |
|
|
On the Calendar
Economic Releases This Week
|
| Monday |
None |
| Tuesday |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
| Wednesday |
Producer Price Index (PPI) |
| Thursday |
Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims |
| Friday |
Housing Starts, Building Permits, Consumer Sentiment (prelim.) |
|
|
|
Worth Reading
Stories to Start the Week
|
|
|
| What is Newton? |
▼ 0–8
▬ 9–13
▲ 14–20
|
Our Newton model determines the highest probability of future price direction using advanced algorithmic and high-order mathematical techniques on the current market environment. It scores securities over multiple time periods on a 0–20 scale (0 worst, 20 best). Trend and level both matter. A name moving from 18 to 16 still signals a strong level, with slight exhaustion in the trend.
|
|
| Equities |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Foreign Developed | ▬ | 13 | 11 |
| Large Cap | ▬ | 12 | 11 |
| Emerging Markets | ▬ | 11 | 8 |
| Mid Cap | ▬ | 9 | 16 |
| Small Cap | ▼ | 7 | 11 |
|
| Fixed Income |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Floating Rate Bond | ▬ | 9 | 11 |
| High Yield Bond | ▬ | 9 | 9 |
| Short Term Bond | ▼ | 7 | 9 |
| Intermediate Term Bond | ▼ | 6 | 9 |
| Long-Term Bond | ▼ | 4 | 5 |
| Corporate Bond | ▼ | 3 | 9 |
|
| Sectors |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Financials | ▲ | 15 | 12 |
| Energy | ▲ | 14 | 12 |
| Health Care | ▬ | 13 | 15 |
| Industrials | ▬ | 10 | 12 |
| Consumer Defensive | ▬ | 10 | 7 |
| Consumer Cyclical | ▼ | 8 | 15 |
| Technology | ▼ | 8 | 10 |
| Communications | ▼ | 8 | 10 |
| Utilities | ▼ | 7 | 6 |
| Real Estate | ▼ | 7 | 5 |
| Materials | ▼ | 7 | 4 |
|
| Market Segments |
TREND |
THIS WK |
LAST WK |
| Mid-Cap Value | ▬ | 13 | 13 |
| Large Value | ▬ | 13 | 10 |
| Small Value | ▬ | 10 | 15 |
| Large Growth | ▬ | 10 | 14 |
| Small Growth | ▼ | 7 | 8 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | ▼ | 6 | 15 |
|
|
Notable Newton Moves This Week: The board tilted toward the week’s leaders. Financials climbed to the top of the sector table and into strong territory (12 to 15), with Energy close behind (12 to 14) as oil firmed. The other side of that rotation was sharp. Growth and cyclical reads fell hard, led by Mid-Cap Growth (15 to 6) and Consumer Cyclical (15 to 8), while the broad Mid Cap equity read dropped from 16 to 9. Fixed income softened across the board as yields rose, with Corporate Bond sliding from 9 to 3.
|
|
Technical trading models are mathematically driven based upon historical data and trends of domestic and foreign market trading activity, including various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models, through mathematical algorithms, attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, updated with new data, and can accurately predict future market, industry and sector performance.
Disclosure: Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This newsletter is not intended to be relied upon as forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date noted and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this letter are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Waterloo Capital to be reliable. The letter may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will materialize. Reliance upon information in this letter is at sole discretion of the reader. Please consult with a Waterloo Capital financial advisor to ensure that any contemplated transaction in any securities or investment strategy mentioned in this newsletter aligns with your overall investment goals, objectives and tolerance for risk. Additional information about Waterloo Capital is available in its current disclosure documents, Form ADV, Form ADV Part 2A Brochure, and Client Relationship Summary report which are accessible online via the SEC's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (IAPD) database at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov, using SEC # 133705. Waterloo Capital is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of this content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice.
|
|