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Weekly NewsletterJanuary 3, 2025

This Week on Wall Street – Week of December 30th

The so-called “Santa Rally” fell short to start off the week, with markets ending 2024 on a cautious note.

This Week on Wall Street – Week of December 30th

Market Commentary

The so-called “Santa Rally” fell short to start off the week, with markets ending 2024 on a cautious note. 

Major indexes extended Friday’s losses due to profit-taking following the Fed’s “hawkish cut,” which dampened expectations for 2025 interest rate reductions. Although there was an initial recovery early last week, it proved short-lived. Concerns also linger in the fixed income market as the 10-year Treasury yield edges closer to its 2024 high of 4.73%.

Investors are closely monitoring S&P 500 support levels near 5,940 and upcoming economic data for clues on consumer health and housing market trends. Key attention this week is on the ISM Manufacturing Index, expected to dip slightly to 48.1% from November’s 48.4%, serving as an important gauge of economic output. 

According our Newton Model, consumer discretionary, technology, and health care are the leading sectors, while utilities, materials, and energy continue to weaken. Large growth stocks are still showing a slight edge over their counterparts, with midcap and small-cap equities rebounding. In fixed income, short-term debt leads.

Happy New Year from the team!

Economic Releases This Week

Monday: Pending Home Sales

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Wednesday: New Year’s Holiday, Market Closed

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: ISM Manufacturing, Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks

Stories to Start the Week

Just 2 people survived South Korea’s worst plane crash in 20 years.

NYSE to close on January 9th to honor late former President Jimmy Carter. 

Trump gives U.S. House Speaker Johnson “complete and total endorsement”

Netflix sets streaming record with Christmas Day NFL games. 

 

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What is Newton?

Our Newton model attempts to determine the highest probability of future price direction by using advanced algorithmic and high-order mathematical techniques on the current market environment to identify trends in underlying security prices. The Newton model scores securities over multiple time periods on a scale of 0-20 with 0 being the worst and 20 being the best possible score.

Trend & level both matter. For example, a name that moves from an 18 to a 16 would signal a strong level yet slight exhaustion in the trend.

 

Technical trading models are mathematically driven based upon historical data and trends of domestic and foreign market trading activity, including various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models, through mathematical algorithms, attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, updated with new data, and can accurately predict future market, industry and sector performance.

About This Series

Last Week on Wall Street

Last Week on Wall Street is Waterloo Capital's weekly market recap, published every Monday morning to keep advisors and clients informed on the most significant developments from the prior trading week. Each edition synthesizes equity market performance, fixed income moves, macroeconomic data releases, and notable corporate earnings into a concise, actionable read — cutting through the noise so our readers can focus on what actually matters for long-term wealth management.

Our research team tracks the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and 10-year Treasury yield as primary benchmarks, while also covering sector rotations, commodity swings, and policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and Washington. When major cross-asset moves occur — such as the historic gold selloff covered in this edition — we dig into the mechanics and the likely ripple effects on diversified portfolios, helping clients contextualize volatility without reacting impulsively.

Our Research Approach

Evidence-Based Perspective for Long-Term Investors

Waterloo Capital's investment research is grounded in fundamental analysis and long-term thinking. We believe that disciplined, evidence-based investing — anchored in each client's specific goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon — consistently outperforms reactive decision-making driven by short-term headlines. Our weekly commentary is designed to inform, not alarm: we put market moves in their proper historical context so that clients can hold conviction in their financial plans through periods of uncertainty.

As an SEC-registered investment advisor headquartered in Austin, Texas, with offices across the Southwest and Southeast, Waterloo Capital serves high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions. Our advisors use proprietary research like this weekly recap as one input among many — alongside in-depth portfolio reviews, tax planning, and estate strategy — to deliver comprehensive wealth management tailored to each client relationship. To learn more about how our investment philosophy and ongoing market research can serve your financial future, contact our team directly.

Investment Disclosure: The information contained in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Waterloo Capital, LP is an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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