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Weekly NewsletterJune 16, 2025

This Week on Wall Street – Week of June 16th

Markets are off to a strong start in this shortened trading week, boosted by reports that Iran is signaling openness to peace talks with both Israel and the U.S. Major indexes climbed nearly 1% on the day, while crude oil gave back about 2% of its Friday spike.

This Week on Wall Street – Week of June 16th

MARKET COMMENTARY

Markets are off to a strong start in this shortened trading week, boosted by reports that Iran is signaling openness to peace talks with both Israel and the U.S. Major indexes climbed nearly 1% on the day, while crude oil gave back about 2% of its Friday spike. The weekend brought renewed tension as Israel and Iran traded strikes on each other’s energy facilities, raising fears of broader conflict. For now, signs of potential de-escalation have allowed investors to breathe a bit easier.

President Trump is in Canada this week for the G-7 Summit, where leaders from countries including Japan, Canada, and Mexico are aiming to make progress on trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 deadline. That marks the end of the current 90-day tariff pause, though many economists expect the deadline could be extended if no agreement is reached.

The spotlight this week turns to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 99.8% chance the Fed holds rates steady. This aligns with recent Fed commentary emphasizing a data-dependent approach—they’re waiting for clearer signs that inflation is sustainably trending toward their 2% target before considering any cuts, despite mounting political pressure from President Trump.

On the data front, May retail sales will be released Tuesday. While a slowdown is expected compared to prior months, the report is unlikely to materially impact the Fed’s decision. However, it will offer valuable insight into how consumer spending is responding to ongoing tariff uncertainty.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 continues to exhibit bullish momentum, recently breaking above all major moving averages and nearing the 6,030 level. Key resistance remains at 6,060, which could be tested this week depending on how economic and geopolitical events unfold. Investor sentiment is tilting toward “greed,” but we’ll need another wave of positive data to push markets firmly into overbought territory. 

Economic Releases This Week

Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday: US Retail Sales, Import Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, Home Builder Confidence Index

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Press Conferencer Price Index, Core CPI, Monthly US Federal Budget

Thursday:  None Scheduled, Juneteenth Holiday

Friday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, US Leading Economic Indicators

Stories to Start the Week


Leaders at G-7 Summit Talk Trade With Trump

Israel Strikes Iran State Media Buildings in Tehran

China’s Retail Sales Soared in May, Though Industrial Output Slowed

Meta is Bringing Ads to Whatsapp

OpenAI and Microsoft Tensions Are Reaching a Boiling Point

About This Series

Last Week on Wall Street

Last Week on Wall Street is Waterloo Capital's weekly market recap, published every Monday morning to keep advisors and clients informed on the most significant developments from the prior trading week. Each edition synthesizes equity market performance, fixed income moves, macroeconomic data releases, and notable corporate earnings into a concise, actionable read — cutting through the noise so our readers can focus on what actually matters for long-term wealth management.

Our research team tracks the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and 10-year Treasury yield as primary benchmarks, while also covering sector rotations, commodity swings, and policy shifts from the Federal Reserve and Washington. When major cross-asset moves occur — such as the historic gold selloff covered in this edition — we dig into the mechanics and the likely ripple effects on diversified portfolios, helping clients contextualize volatility without reacting impulsively.

Our Research Approach

Evidence-Based Perspective for Long-Term Investors

Waterloo Capital's investment research is grounded in fundamental analysis and long-term thinking. We believe that disciplined, evidence-based investing — anchored in each client's specific goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon — consistently outperforms reactive decision-making driven by short-term headlines. Our weekly commentary is designed to inform, not alarm: we put market moves in their proper historical context so that clients can hold conviction in their financial plans through periods of uncertainty.

As an SEC-registered investment advisor headquartered in Austin, Texas, with offices across the Southwest and Southeast, Waterloo Capital serves high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions. Our advisors use proprietary research like this weekly recap as one input among many — alongside in-depth portfolio reviews, tax planning, and estate strategy — to deliver comprehensive wealth management tailored to each client relationship. To learn more about how our investment philosophy and ongoing market research can serve your financial future, contact our team directly.

Investment Disclosure: The information contained in this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Waterloo Capital, LP is an SEC-registered investment advisor. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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