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    Waterloo Insights

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Waterloo Capital Commentary and Outlooks


Global asset class performance in the first quarter of 2024 diverged after a strong rally in the final months of 2023, as markets adjusted expectations for policy rate cuts in major developed economies. While the US saw robust 3.4% GDP growth in Q4 2023, the UK and Europe entered a technical recession. China's ongoing property sector challenges weighed on its economic outlook. Disinflation persisted in the US, UK, and Europe, with...


After a shaky start to the quarter, US equities experienced a significant rally following the Federal Reserve's indications that interest rate cuts could be on the horizon.

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Investors have long turned to public fixed income investments for their traditional attributes of income generation, capital preservation, and safety during volatile markets. However, we now find ourselves navigating through an exceptional chapter of the bond market’s story. The unprecedented phenomenon of three consecutive years of negative total returns challenges our conventional understanding, prompting a critical examination of where we...


The third quarter of 2023 saw the euphoric optimism that propelled the “Magnificent Seven” stocks and broad indices higher, abruptly give way to renewed concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's policy action, or future inaction. The initial vigor of July, extending the strong uptrend from the first half of the year, gave way to a notable shift in sentiment during August and September. Historically known for seasonal weakness, these months...


The first half of 2023 has concluded following a second quarter that saw concern on the direction of markets and the economy giving way to resilient data and optimistic sentiment. Throughout the quarter, investors received earnings reports, economic indicators, and banking sector news displaying that the worst-case scenario of an imminent, banking led recession in the US was not in the cards. Instead, the economy has maintained a steady...

Golf and What It Can Teach Us About Investing for Retirement

“A good golfer has the determination to win and the patience to wait for the breaks.”

- Gary Player


In the midst of recession fears, a banking crisis, and historically high interest rates, the S&P 500 is up 7% YTD. Meanwhile the corresponding equal weighted index of the same 500 companies is roughly flat. What is driving this intra-index divergence, is it sustainable, and where could we go from here?

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Investing and game theory have a lot in common, and one TV program that demonstrates the intersection between the two is “Let’s Make a Deal.


Markets, and more importantly, investor expectations, fluctuated drastically throughout the first three months of 2023. Beaten down areas came out of the gates quickly as they forcefully rallied on optimism that global central banks would soon halt rates. This soft-landing hope quickly sputtered as markets faced a banking crisis and thoughts of tighter financial conditions leading to a larger than expected slowdown in the global economy...


The failure of Silicon Valley Bank was caused by a run on the bank. The company was not, at least until clients began rushing for the exits, remotely insolvent. But banking is an enterprise that relies as much on confidence as it does liquidity — and if that runs out, the game is over.