Weekly Commentary

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We enter the week with stocks and bonds down even as Congress averted the government shutdown. The rate on the 10 YR Treasury hit 4.7% during a roundtable discussion with Jerome Powell and Patrick Harker as investors tried to look for clues on how much higher the Fed will go. It seems we are finally seeing more people wake up to the reality that rates will be higher for longer than previously thought.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -0.74% DOW: -1.34% NASDAQ: 0.08% 10-YR: 4.57%

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We enter the week with equities flat to down. This comes after the Fed's hawkish pause last week causing investors to readjust expectations on the path of rates. The bond market selloff entered its fourth week as the 10-year treasury yield breaks past 4.5%, the highest level since 2007.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -2.93% DOW: -1.89% NASDAQ: -3.61% 10-YR: 4.44%

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We enter the week with small moves across asset classes. These types of moves on lower-than-average volume will likely be the theme until the key Fed decision on Wednesday.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -0.16% DOW: 0.12% NASDAQ: -0.39% 10-YR: 4.32%

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We enter the week with equities rebounding after a slow burn of selling throughout last week. Big tech is leading the gains as the dollar falls. Over the last 6 weeks, the S&P 500 has been down 4 of them. Still, the index is up double digits on the year.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -1.29% DOW: -0.75% NASDAQ: -1.93% 10-YR: 4.26%

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Friday's jobs report print was perceived as bullish for markets during early trading. Ultimately the fade into the close going into Labor Day weekend continued during the shortened trading week. This morning we received a stronger-than-expected report on the US service industry, causing a move lower in stocks and higher in bond yields. This is on bolstered speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: 2.50% DOW: 1.43% NASDAQ: 3.25% 10-YR: 4.17%

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We are coming off a volatile week in markets as investors try to price in Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole. Still, in the dog days of summer, trading volume is extremely low, dampening any opinions on the bull or bear sides. For investors, this means data like Friday's labor report could be crucial.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: 0.82% DOW: -0.45% NASDAQ: 2.26% 10-YR: 4.24%

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Newton scores are showing continued weakness across broad equity markets. From a relative strength perspective, we are seeing slightly better readings by Large Caps compared to their smaller counterparts.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -2.11% DOW: -2.21% NASDAQ: -2.59% 10-YR: 4.25%

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In aggregate, Newton scores reflect deterioration for broad equity markets with the exception of renewed relative strength observed in Forgein Developed markets. Recent turbulence in stocks has prompted investors to seek safety, allowing Fixed Income funds to improve over the last week. Beneath the surface, tactical reallocations from struggling areas of the market toward defensive positioning have instigated an improvement in Healthcare stocks.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -0.31% DOW: 0.62% NASDAQ: -1.90% 10-YR: 4.17%

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The weakening of Newton scores continued into this week on the main equity indices. Over in Fixed Income, we are still seeing the rise in yields affect on bonds as they remain in a downtrend. Beneath the surface, we are seeing strength out of Energy while the rest of the market is weaker.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: -2.27% DOW: -1.11% NASDAQ: -2.85% 10-YR: 4.06%

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Although markets continued their push higher, our model scores are starting to weaken slightly. Large Caps are beating their smaller-sized counterparts while domestic markets have stronger scores than foreign markets. Beneath the surface, we are seeing strength out of Energy and Industrials.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: 1.01% DOW: 0.66% NASDAQ: 1.99% 10-YR: 3.97%

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Although large caps remained level with a high Newton score, mid and small caps faded slightly. Overseas, momentum has stalled as the dollar abruptly stopped its decline. Among sectors, we are seeing fresh names on top as Staples, Energy, Financials, and Industrials lead the pack. Communications and Real Estate are at the bottom of the pile.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: 0.69% DOW: 2.08% NASDAQ: -0.57% 10-YR: 3.84%

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All 3 major market cap indices have high Newton scores, a positive signal. However, if we dig a little deeper we notice that Small Caps have a slight edge as the rate of change is increasing compared to Large Caps. Overseas, we observe neutral readings with increasing momentum. Our models are still favoring equities over fixed income.

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Last Week on Wall Street

S&P 500: 2.42% DOW: 2.29% NASDAQ: 3.32% 10-YR: 3.82%

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Our models favor domestic indexes over foreign ones. Large-cap names have a slight edge over small caps, as the gap between the two narrows.

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